Chapter 7
Science can be a humbling experience. Standing outside the Ratchaburi cave at dusk, bat immunologist Linfa Wang and I watched the flyout of two and a half million horseshoe bats. This river of black in the darkening sky reminds us how little we know about the true scope of viral diversity in bats. Physiologically, bats are extraordinary, they can speed up their metabolism 16 times, creating immense heat that would fry our cells. They have unique immune systems, not overreacting to viral infections. Some species tend to live up to 40 years in vast, dense and diverse colonies, which makes them uniquely suited reservoirs for co-infections and inter-species transmission of multiple viral families. That they could bring forth dangerous viruses is without question.
This has to do with the intricate evolutionary history of coronaviruses in the wild, a phenomenon known as viral recombination. Like a genetic fingerprint, the history of recombinant virus encounters cannot be recreated or faked in a lab. This is the missing piece in our public understanding; the neglected “gain-of-function” laboratory of nature that is far more creative and versatile than human engineers.
“I always say that making a recombinant virus is easy. But to make a virus like SARS-CoV-2, before nature came up with it, is impossible”, Linfa Wang explained. The problem was of course that “Science always suffers because you can’t prove a negative”, he said, prove that something did not happen.
And that simple fact would play into the hands of bad actors and conspiracy theorists alike.
My shaky camera footage of the bat flyout in Ratchaburi. That flyout took over 40 minutes, hard to imagine just how many bats share the world with us.
References:
This chapter was co-written simultaneously with a science communication article, which includes a lot more scientific details and sourcing in the primary literature:
Markolin P., “Treacherous ancestry. A phylogeographic hunt for the ghosts of SARS-CoV-2”, April 12, 2024. Free direct access link: https://www.protagonist-science.com/p/treacherous-ancestry
(This deep-dive article into bats, recombination and CoV evolution was I believe crucial in building trust with Shi Zhengli; she would agree to do an interview with me after reading it)
Note: Shi Zhengli explained to me on the difficulties of finding the origin of SARS once the acute phase was over: “They knew that the direct source of SARS was the civet, or other wild animals, but sold at the wet market. They found genetic materials, they found antibodies in people who sold the animals or who did the trading of the animals. There was a team of Chinese scientists that tried to find if SARS still existed in civets or farmed animals, but they did not find anything. So the government thought, maybe it's over. No more cases. No more viruses found at wet markets or in farmed civets.”
Jane Qiu’s excellent articles on Zhengli Shi are a good background reading as well
Qiu, J. (2020, June 1). How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/
Qiu, J. (2022, July 29). Meet the scientist at the center of the covid lab leak controversy. MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/09/1044985/shi-zhengli-covid-lab-leak-wuhan/
Some of the media frenzy about gain-of-function research and the NIH grant to EcoHealth Alliance and WIV:
Senator Rand Paul attacks Dr. Anthony Fauci about “gain-of-function” research
Cathey, L., & Pezenik, S. (2021, July 20). Fauci, Rand Paul get in shouting match over Wuhan lab research. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-rand-paul-shouting-match-wuhan-lab-research/story?id=78946568
Mackey, R., & Mackey, R. (2021, September 10). Rand Paul’s Attack on Anthony Fauci Chills Scientific Debate Over Gain-of-Function Research. The Intercept. https://theintercept.com/2021/07/27/covid-anthony-fauci-rand-paul-research/
NIH lifts funding pause on Gain-of-Function research. (2017, December 19). National Institutes of Health (NIH). https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statements/nih-lifts-funding-pause-gain-function-research
The Intercept reports about “risky” gain-of-function research in Wuhan
Lerner, S., Hvistendahl, M. (2021, September 6). New details emerge about coronavirus research at Chinese lab. The Intercept. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/06/new-details-emerge-about-coronavirus-research-at-chinese-lab/
Lerner, S., Hvistendahl, M., Hibbett, M. (2021, September 9). NIH documents provide new evidence U.S. funded Gain-of-Function research in Wuhan. The Intercept. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research/
Daily mail claims NIH admits to funding GoF
Martinez, G. (2021, October 22). NIH ADMITS to funding gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses at China’s Wuhan lab. Mail Online. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10117619/NIH-ADMITS-funding-gain-function-research-bat-coronaviruses-Chinas-Wuhan-lab.html
Quote from French Microbiologist Simon-Wain Hobson
Engineering viruses to make the world a more dangerous place. (n.d.). The Microbiologist. https://www.the-microbiologist.com/opinion/engineering-viruses-to-make-the-world-a-more-dangerous-place/341.article
Quote from online commentator and NYT columnist with large following
Zeynep Tufekci [@zeynep]. (2021, July 10). X (Formerly Twitter). https://x.com/zeynep/status/1413924253821440005 "Working hypothesis should be there is an extensive and sustained cover-up, and people should refrain from making broad statistical claims in such a situation. Generalities aren’t illuminating."